Securitization Is Too Big To Fail So The Racketeering Must Stop!
Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Aug 15, 2009 – 06:12 PM
By: Andrew_Butter
Armageddon Part One is over. The question, like a hurricane, is whether the US is now in the eye of the storm or is it plain sailing from here on? The “navigators” are mumbling something about “all clear”, but then that’s what they mumbled last time.
Follow the money… how much money got “pumped” into the US economy after the start of the credit crunch compared to before? It’s a little confusing:
According to his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on 21st July by Mark Zandi the head of Moody’s, (http://www.freelunch.com/mark-zandi/documents/House-Financial-Services-Financial-System-Regulatory-Reform-Written-Testimony-072109.pdf) so far the Fed has pumped $2.7 trillion into the “legacy” banks; and Congress, (via the Treasury) pumped, $1 trillion directly into the veins of the economy, via the stimulus packages. Presumably those are the correct numbers; certainly no one jumped up and said he had his arithmetic wrong
The testimony also has a summary timeline of issuance of securitized bonds, (source Thompson Reuters).
A recent report from Thompson Reuters (http://seekingalpha.com/article/155203-historical-and-forecast-loan-data) gives a chart of debt created by the “legacy” banking system, of the traditional “Originate to Hold” variety.
Then there is the increase of National Debt, which is easy (although different sources have slightly different numbers), presumably that was achieved by sales of Treasuries (I gave up trying to figure that out from the Treasury Website).
As a check there are the estimates of the total debt in USA which I referenced from Morgan Stanley. Theoretically (b+c+d) should add up to (e), it does more or less; I imagine any discrepancies are due to roll-overs which I didn’t find data about.
Put that all together, tells a story:
Big picture what appears to have happened is that the Treasury has taken over the heavy lifting that securitization used to do in terms of providing the “credit-driver” of the US economy. That is not healthy, and it may turn out to be unsustainable.
Looking at more or less the same data another way, this is an estimate of what happened in the eighteen months from January 2008 and the previous eighteen months:
Bit confused by what looks like a $700 billion increase in High Grade Corporate Bond Issuance, but the data doesn’t account for rolling-over so the net might be less.
Be that as it may; the important point is that the $2.7 trillion of “bail-out” money doesn’t get into the economy until the banks start to lend it. So far they are not doing that. They say that’s because no one wants to borrow; the borrowers say that’s because the terms offered by the banks amount to legalized loan sharking.
Whatever, it’s not getting lent.
By that logic, the amount of credit plus “one-off-stimulus” that got injected into the main artery of the economy is 22% down on the preceding eighteen-month period. Taking into account that a proportion of the stimulus packages didn’t actually get shelled out so far, add in an allowance for rolling-over, the actual decline year on year could well be in excess of 30%.
That’s not going to produce hyperinflation in a hurry. Read more »