And the Interest rates jump

May 28 (Bloomberg) — A jump in interest rates on typical new U.S. mortgages to the highest since February may end a “two-month-old rebound in risk appetite,” according to Credit Suisse Group analysts.

Rates on 30-year loans climbed 0.37 percentage point to 5.34 percent yesterday, the New York-based analysts, who included Mahesh Swaminathan, wrote in a report today. That’s because yields rose on so-called agency home-loan bonds as investors backed away from the debt and U.S. Treasuries sold off, partly because of mortgage-bond hedging that may continue, they said.

Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Rates Increase

Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose to records in the first quarter and home-loan rates jumped to the highest since March as the government’s effort to fix the housing slump lost momentum.

The U.S. delinquency rate jumped to a seasonally adjusted 9.12 percent from 7.88 percent, the biggest-ever increase, and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. Both figures are the highest in records going back to 1972. Fixed rates rose to 4.91 percent, Freddie Mac said, and an increase in bond yields earlier this week shows rates may continue rising.

But what is better than Gold?

Gold is hot. Gold prices are back on the rise and gold stocks have done even better.

Is this a sign of things to come?

Well, if you take a look at the mainstream headlines, you’d think so.

An editorial headline on Bloomberg proclaims, “Dollar is dirt, Treasuries are toast, and AAA is gone.”

Even CBS News is warning, “Inflation could be coming to a U.S. dollar near you.”

To me, it seems just like a typical overreaction in the short-term.

Yes, the long-run trend for the dollar is down as the Fed keeps printing more and more of them and monetizing government debt. And yes, the prospects for gold get brighter and brighter with each passing week.

Gold Is all you Need

Gold Bullion is “the most positive defining instrument of the global appetite for risk and reward,” reckons Barry Sergeant at MineWeb in Jo’burg, South Africa. Indeed, it “thrives on economic uncertainty,” according to his colleague Lawrence Williams. Yet for Steven Barrow at Standard Bank here in London, gold offers “the best indicator of liquidity”, with the recent recovery in gold prices implying that “liquidity has been better restored.”

They can’t all be right. Not at the same time, at least. But Barrow and MineWeb might both be wrong. Because for Nouriel Roubini, writing in the New York Times, “Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high.” Whereas for Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank, “Gold is probably the most richly priced commodity in the world at the moment: in real terms, it’s trading at around 65% above its long-run historical average.”

Again, that can’t all prove true. Not with inflation in the cost of living averaging a five-decade low since 2001, back when gold cost less than one-third today’s price and finally turned higher from a two-decade bear market. And not with the Gold Price now standing 95% above its 20th century average, in fact, when measured against US consumer prices.

Rebooting the Global Economy

Most of the planned bad news on the US banking system is now on the table or at least anticipated, in some form. The stress test requirements for US banks at $75 billion of new capital required are workable, though heavily dilutive. There are legitimate doubts that this will actually be sufficient given the depth of the hole these banks have dug. And, there is still much to be done on making various derivatives markets more transparent so that can be properly figured into the mess. More shoes may drop on western banking, and particularly in Europe that has been less willing to write down its losses. At best a long period of capital accumulation is still ahead in order to deal with the over leverage that caused the problem. However, the LIBOR rate has shrunk enough to indicate commercial banks feel they are sorting each other out, and the TED spread between US T-bill and Eurodollar rates has slipped back below 50 basis points that is the top end of “normal” risk. So while some banks are still of necessity scooping up capital to their own accounts, it’s clear others believe they can gauge how to risk the capital that they do have for lending, and that they are finding non-government homes for capital that they are again comfortable with.

The “Plan” for 2009: Remaking the Global Political Economy

From May 14-17, the global elite met in secret in Greece for the yearly Bilderberg conference, amid scattered and limited global media attention. Roughly 130 of the world’s most powerful individuals came together to discuss the pressing issues of today, and to chart a course for the next year. The main topic of discussion at this years meeting was the global financial crisis, which is no surprise, considering the list of conference attendees includes many of the primary architects of the crisis, as well as those poised to “solve” it.

The Agenda: The Restructuring of the Global Political Economy

Before the meeting began, Bilderberg investigative journalist Daniel Estulin reported on the main item of the agenda, which was leaked to him by his sources inside. Though such reports cannot be verified, his sources, along with those of veteran Bilderberg tracker, Jim Tucker, have proven to be shockingly accurate in the past. Apparently, the main topic of discussion at this year’s meeting was to address the economic crisis, in terms of undertaking, “Either a prolonged, agonizing depression that dooms the world to decades of stagnation, decline and poverty … or an intense-but-shorter depression that paves the way for a new sustainable economic world order, with less sovereignty but more efficiency.” Other items on the agenda included a plan to “continue to deceive millions of savers and investors who believe the hype about the supposed up-turn in the economy. They are about to be set up for massive losses and searing financial pain in the months ahead,” and “There will be a final push for the enactment of Lisbon Treaty, pending on Irish voting YES on the treaty in Sept or October,”[1] which would give the European Union massive powers over its member nations, essentially making it a supranational regional government, with each country relegated to more of a provincial status.

How a Bank Really Works

“I understand that these cuts are very painful and they affect real lives. This is the harsh reality and the reality that we face. Sacramento is not Washington – we cannot print our own money. We can only spend what we have.” Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger quoted in Time, May 22, 2009

Christmas comes early, Governor. You CAN print your own money. Fiscally solvent North Dakota is doing it . . . and so can California. Now!!!

In a May 22 article in Time titled “Billions in the Red: Fiscal Reckoning in CA,” Juliet Williams reports that since California voters have now vetoed higher taxes and further state government borrowing, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has indicated that he intends to close the budget gap almost entirely through drastic spending cuts. The cutbacks could include laying off thousands of state workers and teachers, ending the state’s main welfare program for the poor, eliminating health coverage for about 1.5 million poor children, halting cash grants for about 77,000 college students, slashing money for state parks, and releasing thousands of prisoners before their sentences are finished. Schwarzenegger bemoaned the fact that the state could not print its own money but said it could only spend what it had.

But the state can create its own money. After all, banks do this every day. Certified, card-carrying bankers are allowed to do something nobody else can do: they can create “credit” with accounting entries on their books. As the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas explains on its website:

Collapsing home prices and….

Collapsing home prices and credit markets continue to put downward pressure on consumer spending, forcing the Federal Reserve to take even more radical action to revive the economy. Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke raised the prospect of further monetizing the debt by purchasing more than the $1.75 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) already committed. The announcement sent shock-waves through the currency markets where skittish traders have joined doomsayers in predicting tough times ahead for the dollar. Foreign central banks have been gobbling up US debt at an impressive pace, adding another $60 billion in the last three weeks alone. That’s more than enough to cover the current account deficit and put the greenback on solid ground for the time-being. But with fiscal deficits ballooning to $3 trillion in the next year alone, dwindling foreign investment won’t be enough to keep the dollar afloat. Bernanke will be forced to either raise interest rates or let the dollar fall hard.

Export-led nations are looking for an edge to revive flagging sales by keeping their currencies undervalued. But the strong dollar is making it harder for Bernanke to engineer a recovery. He’d like nothing more than to see the dollar tumble and reset at a lower rate. That would reduce the debt-load for homeowners and businesses and send consumers racing back to the shopping malls and auto showrooms. Perception management is a big part of stimulating the economy. That’s why the financial media has been air-brushing articles that focus on deflation and shifting the attention to inflation. It’s an effort to kick-start consumer spending by convincing people that their money will be worth less in the future. But deflation is still enemy number one. Rising unemployment, crashing home prices, vanishing equity and tighter credit; these are all signs of entrenched deflation.

Bernanke faces three main challenges to put the economy back on track. He must remove the hundreds of billions in toxic assets from the banks balance sheets, reignite consumer spending to offset the sharp decline in aggregate demand, and fix the wholesale credit-mechanism that provides 40 percent of the credit to the broader economy. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has taken over the distribution of the remaining TARP funds, and created a new program, the Public-Private Investment Partnership (PPIP), for purchasing toxic mortgage-backed assets. The PPIP will provide up to 94 percent “non-recourse” government loans for up to $1 trillion of assets which are worth less than half of their original value at today’s prices. The Treasury’s plan is an attempt to keep asset prices artificially high so that the losses will not be realized until they’ve been shifted onto the taxpayer. Here’s how John Hussman of Hussman Funds summed up Geithner’s PPIP:

Worldwide Economic Contraction Ahead

“I almost went down on my knees to beg [President] Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot Tariff.”… “That Act intensified nationalism all over the world.” Thomas Lamont, banker and economic adviser, June 1930

“Now is a time where we have to be very careful about any signals of protectionism.” President Barack Obama, February 19, 2009

“From the purely economic point of view nothing speaks against free trade and everything against protectionism.” Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973), Austrian economist

When the economy is booming, foreign borrowings and imports of goods and services from other countries are most welcome. They allow for more spending without inflation and they raise living standards. It is a version of having your cake and eating it too. In an economic downturn, however, the political reflex of populist politicians is to turn protectionist and to become economic isolationists by raising trade barriers. In such an environment, foreign competition becomes a convenient scapegoat for the crisis, even though the causes of such crisis are most often purely domestic in nature.

Regarding trade, the Obama administration seems to have adopted the “good cop, bad cop” routine, extolling the virtues of free trade in presidential speeches while letting Congress pass protectionist measures in series. The fear here is a repetition of the 1930s when American politicians rushed to pass the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff act of 1930 that triggered an international trade war and which accelerated the worldwide economic downturn. World trade plummeted into a spiral downward and domestic production for exports contracted everywhere. Normal trade links were disrupted and intricate inter-country production arrangements were dismantled.

Indeed, in a misguided attempt to fight the economic downturn, governments all over the world rushed to adopt self-destructive “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies, in a futile attempt to devalue each other’s currencies and to reduce their imports in retaliation, forgetting that one country’s imports are the other country’s exports. The consequence was that from 1929 to 1933, the value of world trade contracted by two-thirds, going from $5.3 billion to $1.8 billion.

Do You Believe Banks Are Recovering …

The conspiracy theorists of the world believe the U.S. government faked the landing of Apollo 11 on the moon. They also believe 9/11 was an inside job, ordered by operatives within the government. The rationale of these acts was to distract the masses from the disastrous Vietnam War and the plummeting stock market, while escalating their control over the American people.

I believe I have uncovered the largest conspiracy in history. The government wants you to believe that banks are recovering, housing has bottomed, stimulus works, borrowing leads to prosperity and war leads to peace. President Obama and his cronies at Treasury and the Federal Reserve are trying to mislead the public regarding the health of our banking system. If you believe their spin on these issues, I have a structurally deficient bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you.

The government has something up its sleeve this time. They are perpetrating the greatest fraud in the history of the world. The conspirators are Barack Obama, Timothy Geithner and the Treasury Department, Ben Bernanke and the Fed, Sheila Baer and the FDIC, and Barney Frank and the Democratic Congress.

They have colluded to commit taxpayer funds to enrich bankers that brought down the financial system, without getting congressional approval. They have delayed foreclosures and have tried to artificially prop up the housing market. They have poured billions of stimulus pork into the states praying for some of it not to be wasted. They have confiscated billions in taxpayer funds, bestowed them on reckless banks and forced them to lend it to anyone with a pulse, again.