Global Credit Loss Estimates
Nouriel Roubini expects total credit market losses in this
credit downturn to build up to USD 3.6 trillion while the IMF
expects losses to mount to USD 2.2 trillion. I guess both remain
counting.
Both have updated their number in January and it is my
understanding that both are talking just about losses
from debt originated in the United States.
Given that this credit crisis is of a global nature I wonder
if anyone has an educated guess for a global credit loss number.
My simple guess would be a number in the area of USD 6-8 trillion.
We have seen about USD 1.07 trillion so far as per Bloomberg (WDCI).
My number would be about 7.5% to 10% of the USD 79.8 trillion
total world debt including public and private sector securities
as reported by IMF as per 2007.
At the same time World GDP was 54.5 trillion, total bank
assets where 84.78 trillion and stock market cap was 65 trillion
(we are below 30 trillion as per today)
International reserve assets (minus gold) are about 6.7 as per
Jannuary 2008.
